US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from a high of 102.94 last week—dropping below the 102 level to reach a low of 101.82 earlier this month—extending the downward trend seen in the latter part of last week. Following a recent sell-off in technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, the dollar has underperformed compared to other safe-haven assets, such as government bonds and precious metals. The market is increasingly pricing in a potential slowdown in the AI-related capital expenditure boom, which has been a key driver for both the US economy and its financial markets. Meanwhile, investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook; stronger-than-expected US economic data has reinforced expectations for further interest rate hikes. Currently, market pricing suggests a roughly 72% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, while the likelihood of a rate hike in December has risen to 92%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has warned that if public inflation expectations deteriorate significantly, the central bank might need to adopt a more aggressive approach to raising rates.

Last week, the US Dollar Index experienced high-level volatility with waning bullish momentum. After an initial push upward, the index entered a consolidation phase at elevated levels; the daily chart failed to reach new highs, signaling a period of "recharging" following a rally—a phase characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The dollar reacted negatively following a fireside chat between Kevin Warsh (a potential Fed chair candidate) and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remained unchanged at 127.51—well above the neutral 100 mark—firmly positioning it within the "hawkish" territory. Despite a slightly weaker score on the FXS Speechtracker, the index’s stability suggests that the market views Warsh’s remarks as generally consistent with the current hawkish policy framework, leaving expectations for the dollar and the broader foreign exchange market largely unchanged.

In summary, the US Dollar Index saw an initial rise followed by a decline last week. It was a week defined by volatility: an upward push driven by inflation data, followed by profit-taking in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve-related figures. The index reached a weekly high of 102.94—a level not seen in approximately 18 months—before retreating. By Friday, it pulled back to test support near 101.80. The weekly candle is likely to close as a bullish line with an upper shadow; while the overall bullish trend remains intact, short-term momentum has clearly waned. The primary market driver was the September CPI, which exceeded expectations and fueled speculation regarding a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing the US Dollar higher alongside rising Treasury yields. Subsequently, comments from Warsh—who indicated he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions—led the market to lower the probability of an October hike. As Treasury yields retreated, investors locked in profits, causing the Dollar to fall from its highs. In summary: the medium-term bullish trend persists, but the short-term dynamic has shifted from a one-way rally to high-level oscillation and consolidation. A range-bound approach is currently preferable to blindly chasing further gains.
Technical outlook for next week: On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index (spot) is trading at 101.80. The short-term bias remains slightly bullish, as the price holds above the 25-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 101.36—a sign that underlying demand persists following the recent rebound from below the 100 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 57.30, remaining in a neutral-to-positive zone; this suggests that upward momentum is slowing but has not yet deteriorated. On the downside, initial support is found at the 25-day SMA (101.36) and the 101.00 psychological level, with the SMA serving as a key technical floor during the current consolidation. As long as this level contains any pullbacks, the broader constructive tone may hold; however, a decisive break below it would signal that the bullish phase is losing steam. On the upside, the 102.28 level (5-day simple moving average) and 102.53 (the high from October 5) serve as the initial resistance zone. A breakout above these levels would target 102.94 (the high from October 14) and the 103.00 psychological mark.

For today, one might consider shorting the US Dollar Index at 101.90, with a stop-loss at 102.00 and targets at 101.40 and 101.30.

AUD/USD

Last week, the Australian dollar remained just above the $0.69 level, hovering near its lowest point since mid-July. This followed an unexpectedly weak employment report, which led traders to scale back expectations for further interest rate hikes. The unemployment rate held at a five-year high of 4.7%—exceeding the 4.6% forecast—while the figure for the previous month was also revised upward from the initially reported 4.6%. Furthermore, the economy shed 39,300 jobs—the largest monthly decline since February of last year—contrary to market expectations of a 20,000-job increase. These data points suggest that the labor market may be cooling. To curb inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its cash rate by one percentage point this year to 4.6%, marking one of the most aggressive tightening cycles among developed economies.

Heading into the weekend, the AUD/USD pair saw a technical rebound, rising toward 0.6950. The US dollar faced some selling pressure against the Australian dollar following remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh. Speaking at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Friday, Warsh indicated that he would assess the situation during the upcoming policy meetings in October and December. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the latest Australian employment data has led financial markets to lower the probability of an RBA rate hike on November 3 to below 20%, down from approximately 35% prior to the release of the figures. The market currently assigns a probability of less than 10% to a rate hike in November—down from a previous estimate of 35%—while the probability for a December hike has fallen from 60% to 30%. Investors are now shifting their focus to a speech by Andrew Hauser next week, as well as the third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later this month, seeking further clues regarding the policy outlook.

Last week, the exchange rate saw a modest rebound to test overhead resistance before facing renewed selling pressure. The overall structure remains one of weak, range-bound oscillation, with the daily price center shifting slightly lower and no clear signal of a trend reversal. The rebound stalled in the 0.6990–0.7000 zone; the lack of bullish momentum suggests a weak recovery from an oversold condition rather than a genuine trend reversal. On the weekly chart, the candle closed as a small bearish candle or a "doji" with an upper shadow. The 0.6900 level—a medium-term support zone tested multiple times this year—serves as a critical dividing line between bulls and bears. While the price has approached this level several times this week without a decisive breakdown, buying interest remains insufficient to provide a meaningful floor. Fundamental drivers include weaker-than-expected Australian employment data, which has dampened expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes. Meanwhile, persistent U.S. inflation continues to support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Compounded by fluctuating risk sentiment and volatility in commodities like iron ore, the Australian dollar—a currency sensitive to both commodity prices and risk appetite—continues to face limited upside potential.

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6950, maintaining a short-term bearish bias as the spot price remains below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6989. Having retreated from recent highs, the pair is currently pressured by this short-term trend indicator. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39.63—below the neutral midline—signaling that downward pressure persists rather than suggesting an imminent rebound. The recent breakdown below key support levels marks a shift in the prevailing market outlook for the pair. The Australian dollar "may trade between 0.6895 and 0.7015." However, the pair subsequently "rose to 0.7015 before pulling back, extending its losses to break below 0.6935 and reaching a low of 0.6895." Although downward momentum is building, it is not yet particularly strong. The bias for the Australian dollar remains to the downside, and any further weakness "could test the June low of 0.6865." On the upside, a break above the 20-day simple moving average at 0.6989—with the next level at 0.7015 (last week’s high)—would suggest that the Australian dollar is more likely to remain range-bound rather than decline further. Today, consider going long on the AUD/USD at 0.6935; stop-loss: 0.6925; targets: 0.6980, 0.6970.

GBP/USD

During the latter part of last week, the GBP/USD pair experienced a volatile rise, rebounding above 1.3300 to reach its highest level since September 30. This upward movement was supported by fresh policy signals from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. On Friday, Bailey noted that while "second-round effects" stemming from rising energy prices appear contained thus far, it is still too early to draw a definitive conclusion. He described the UK’s above-target inflation as "extremely frustrating" and identified developments in the Middle East as the primary driver of UK gilt yields. These comments were more balanced than his warnings from late September; while they may have slightly tempered market expectations for a November rate hike, they certainly did not rule one out.
Bailey indicated that second-round inflationary effects in the UK remain contained for now, though it is too early to be certain. He characterized the above-target inflation as "extremely frustrating" and pointed to the situation in the Middle East as the main factor influencing UK gilt yields. These remarks appear more measured than his late-September warnings—potentially cooling some of the aggressive market pricing for a November rate hike, without entirely dismissing the possibility. The situation in the Middle East is impacting UK gilt yields and rate-hike expectations directly through oil and gas prices; any further surge in energy costs would strengthen the case for monetary tightening. Key catalysts to watch include next week’s inflation data for September, the October 28 budget announcement, and the BoE’s policy decision in November.

Core trend last week: The pair initially rallied, only to fall back sharply following a higher-than-expected US CPI print, returning to a weak, range-bound structure at lower levels. Early in the week, the price recovered from its lows, and by the end of the week, it had rebounded to a two-week high near 1.3300. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD showed signs of strengthening, and the RSI... The recent uptick represents a technical correction following a decline; the bearish trend on the daily timeframe remains intact. Following the release of U.S. CPI data, persistent inflation fueled expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, causing the GBP/USD pair to plummet—briefly hitting a new low for the month. The RSI retreated toward the 30 level, signaling oversold conditions and a concentrated release of short-term bearish momentum, which in turn triggered a rebound driven by the oversold state. Toward the end of the week, bearish pressure eased, and selling momentum subsided. The price has moved back into the range where it previously broke down; this is best characterized as a period of consolidation at a low level following a decline, rather than a trend reversal. On the daily chart, the price continues to trade below the 20-day moving average, which remains a clear source of resistance for the medium term. On the hourly timeframe, the Bollinger Bands initially expanded downward before contracting toward the end of the week, signaling a period of narrowing volatility as the market awaits a new directional catalyst.

From a technical perspective for the coming week, the daily chart for GBP/USD remains bearish, though the momentum has eased. The pair continues to trade below both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3391 and the 34-day SMA at 1.3347, maintaining a prevailing bearish tone. However, the price has held steady above the Bollinger Band midline at 1.3249, suggesting that while downward pressure persists, it has moderated. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at approximately 49.26—below the neutral 50 level but well above the oversold zone—indicating that selling pressure remains present without reaching extreme levels. The MACD indicator is below the zero line, but the narrowing histogram suggests a marginal weakening of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 34-day SMA at 1.3347 serves as the initial key resistance. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA at 1.3391 and the 1.3400 round number form a dense supply zone; a decisive breakout above the 1.3391–1.3400 range would be required to signal a meaningful easing of the bearish outlook. On the downside, the Bollinger Band midline at 1.3249 acts as the immediate line of defense. A daily close below this level would open the door for further retracement, with potential targets at the 1.3200 round number and, subsequently, the 1.3137 level (last week’s low).

For today, consider going long on GBP at 1.3318, with a stop-loss at 1.3305 and targets at 1.3370 and 1.3360.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair fluctuated around the 158 level last week. In a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Fed Governor Warsh noted that global developments since the September FOMC meeting have generally aligned with the Federal Reserve's expectations. Warsh added that the Fed remains committed to achieving price stability and cautioned against pre-judging the outcome of upcoming meetings. This, combined with a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields, has kept the U.S. dollar under pressure, exerting downward force on the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, traders remain highly vigilant regarding potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen, which acts as a cap on any upside for the pair. Nevertheless, the market is increasingly pricing in another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its December policy meeting; this, alongside persistent geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, could provide support for the safe-haven U.S. dollar—potentially limiting further declines in USD/JPY.

Last week, USD/JPY experienced a pattern of rising, retreating, and oscillating at high levels. Early in the week, the pair climbed, supported by strengthening U.S. Treasury yields, and reached a three-week high near 158.98 on Wednesday. Subsequently, profit-taking and hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan officials triggered a pullback, with the price dipping to a low of 157.55 on Thursday before ending the week in a narrow 157.80–158.20 range. The pair faced strong resistance at the 100-day moving average (159.45) and the weekly high of 158.98. The formation of a long upper shadow on the weekly candle, a decline in the RSI to the neutral 53 level, and the narrowing of the MACD’s red bars indicate a clear waning of bullish momentum, shifting the trend from a one-sided advance to a range-bound pattern. Key resistance levels lie at 158.98–159.45, followed by 160.00—a level highly sensitive to potential policy intervention. Support levels: 157.55 (this week’s low), 157.04 (lower Bollinger Band + support from a high-volume area), and 156.50 (low from September 28).
Analysis for next week: From a technical perspective, the repeated failure to break above the three-week high near 158.98 warrants caution among bullish traders. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51.70—slightly above the midline—suggesting a neutral to marginally bullish momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) remains slightly negative, indicating that upside potential may stay limited until momentum improves or the USD/JPY pair achieves a clear breakout above the 158.98–159.00 range. That said, the spot price has found solid support near the 157.55 level (last week’s low) and the 157.00 psychological mark; therefore, it would be prudent to wait for sustained weakness below this zone before positioning for further declines. Should the pair break below the 157.00 handle, it could weaken further, potentially testing support at 156.50 (the low from September 28). Ultimately, traders are likely to wait for a momentum-driven breakout in either direction to establish a clearer short-term trend for the pair.

For today, consider shorting the USD/JPY at 158.18, with a stop-loss at 158.30 and a target of 157.30. 157.40

EUR/USD

The euro is hovering around $1.1250, supported by a broad weakening of the US dollar, marking a slight recovery from the lows reached earlier this month. Despite this rebound, the euro remains near its lowest level since May 2025, as market expectations for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve—aimed at curbing persistent inflation—have bolstered the dollar. Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly regarding the situation in France, has also weighed on the euro. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized that France must address its debt challenges through fiscal consolidation, dampening market speculation that the ECB might intervene by purchasing French government bonds to contain yields. Lagarde also noted that energy-driven inflation has not yet spread to the broader Eurozone economy, a point that supports a cautious approach to interest rates. Nevertheless, ECB policymaker Gediminas Šimkus indicated that a rate hike as early as this month remains a possibility if necessary. The market continues to anticipate another rate hike from the ECB in December.

The remarks from Santos Pereira convey a clear signal: the ECB is currently prepared to tolerate energy-driven inflationary shocks, provided that price pressures do not spill over into other sectors of the economy. Data on the breadth of price increases over the past two years supports this stance. The policy bottom line is clear—should such a spillover occur, the central bank will be compelled to act. Natural gas prices and winter demand represent key downside risks, while the rise in bond yields is largely attributed to fiscal factors. Overall, the ECB currently lacks an urgent need for significant further tightening in response to energy shocks, which in turn limits the interest-rate-driven support for the euro. Moving forward, the focus will remain on the breakdown of Eurozone inflation data, trends in natural gas prices, and developments regarding fiscal policy. The evolution of these variables will determine whether the current assessment—that the energy shock is "transitory" (or "look-through-able")—remains valid.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend. Early in the week, it hit a 17-month low amid significant intraday volatility; after multiple dips, it staged a rebound—characterized by a long lower shadow—which represents a technical correction within a primary downtrend rather than a reversal. The weekly price range spanned from a low near 1.1161 to a rebound high of 1.1277, with the pair closing Friday near 1.12040. The weekly candle closed in the red, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline and confirming the dominance of the bearish trend. The price remains well below its medium-to-long-term moving averages, which are aligned in a bearish configuration. The MACD indicator maintains a bearish structure below the zero line, while the RSI has entered deep oversold territory (near 28). This suggests that short-term downward momentum is exhausted and there is a potential for a technical rebound; however, an oversold condition does not equate to a reversal—any rebound is likely just a correction within the broader downtrend. Drivers from last week included fiscal and political risks in the Eurozone (concerns over French public finances and widening sovereign bond spreads), which weighed on the Euro. Meanwhile, a hawkish tone in the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes led the market to reprice expectations for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, driving a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and strengthening the U.S. Dollar—a dynamic that further pressured the Euro via interest rate differentials.

Technical Outlook for Next Week: The medium-term trend remains bearish, while the short-term outlook is characterized by consolidation at low levels, with the potential for an oversold rebound. Trading at 1.1200, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish bias, on track for a five-week losing streak with a cumulative decline of 3.5%. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) remains capped below the 50-midline, while the MACD is slightly positive. These readings suggest the price is stabilizing, but bullish pressure remains too weak to warrant a shift toward a bullish outlook. The price is currently hovering in the middle of this week’s horizontal channel, with immediate resistance located at 1.1277—a level corresponding to the highs seen on October 2nd and 8th. Looking further upward, the next target lies in the area between the late-June low of 1.1337 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September–October downtrend—near 1.1350. On the downside, immediate support is found at 1.1160, near the October 2nd low. A break below this level would point toward the 1.1050 area—the site of a low from late May 2025—followed by the psychological level of 1.1000.
For today, consider going long on the Euro at 1.1230; stop-loss: 1.1220; targets: 1.1270, 1.1260.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

Last week, the price of WTI crude oil climbed to a near four-week high above $98.90 per barrel, putting it on track for a gain of over 8% this week amid mounting concerns regarding supply from the Middle East. U.S. Central Command confirmed that a Singapore-flagged container ship, which sank in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, had been struck by an Iranian projectile. This has fueled uncertainty over the resumption of physical oil shipments and pushed tanker freight rates to record highs. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have further exacerbated supply risks. Meanwhile, following lobbying by U.S. officials, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to continue releasing the remaining 100 million barrels of oil from the coordinated intervention launched in March. Separately, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels last week—the largest decline since February.
Supported by lower transportation costs for U.S. crude, which have bolstered demand, WTI crude is also poised to outperform Brent crude this week. U.S. President Trump stated that he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran, nor does he foresee the deployment of U.S. ground forces to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This has eased market concerns regarding a further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Nevertheless, a geopolitical risk premium remains in play as fighting intensifies between the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, the standoff between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continues to provide support for crude oil prices.

Last week, WTI crude oil exhibited a pattern of high-level volatility with a bullish bias; after initial sharp rallies, momentum faded. The core market narrative centered on the tug-of-war between Middle East geopolitical risk premiums and news regarding the release of strategic reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA), leading to a pattern of rallies followed by pullbacks and repeated fluctuations. Bullish momentum waned in the latter half of the week: the MACD histogram contracted, the RSI retreated from overbought territory into a neutral range, and the upward trajectory flattened as the market entered a phase of consolidation. It failed to establish a sustained bullish trend of consecutive new highs, characterizing the action as a "strong consolidation" rather than a one-sided, persistent uptrend. In summary, last week’s price action was driven primarily by geopolitical headlines—bullish news (such as risks to shipping lanes or supply disruptions) spurred rallies, while reports of an accelerated release of IEA reserves capped further upside, with significant selling pressure emerging at higher levels. Conversely, buying interest remained resilient during pullbacks, with no clear signals of a breakdown into a bearish trend.

Looking ahead to next week, the technical outlook suggests continued wide-ranging volatility at high levels. A range-trading strategy is preferred, pending confirmation of a definitive breakout. A breakout to the upside would signal a resumption of the bullish trend, while a breakdown to the downside could open the door for a deeper correction. From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil maintains a short-term bullish bias on the 4-hour chart, holding above both the 200-period simple moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline seen between September and October. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory with a latest reading of 0.12, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 65.10—a bullish zone that has not yet reached overbought levels. Together, these momentum indicators support a constructive outlook. Meanwhile, immediate support is found at the reclaimed 50% retracement level of $94.18, followed by the 200-period SMA near $92.50 and the 38.2% retracement level at $92.31. A deeper pullback could see the 23.6% retracement level at $89.99 serve as a more significant structural floor. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the psychological $100 mark, followed by stronger resistance near $102.10 (the September 15 high). Should the rally extend, the recent swing high of $104.74 (the May 18 high) would act as a further ceiling.
For today, consider going long on crude oil at $98.80, with a stop-loss at $98.60 and targets at $100.00 and $102.00.

Spot Gold

Before the end of last week, the price of gold climbed toward a level above $4,200 per ounce. A recent sell-off in stock markets has fueled investor demand for "safe-haven" assets, specifically government bonds and precious metals. This shift toward safer investments has driven a sharp decline in bond yields, easing the pressure on non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Investors are also weighing the implications of escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East—notably the intensifying hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, as well as the sinking of a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz this week following a projectile attack by Iran. Meanwhile, market participants continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has bolstered expectations for further interest rate hikes; currently, the market assigns a roughly 72% probability to the Fed keeping rates unchanged this month, while the likelihood of a rate hike in December has risen to 92%.
Taking the current market landscape into account, the core logic behind the rebound in gold prices is clear: a weaker U.S. dollar has lowered the cost of gold (which is priced in dollars), declining Treasury yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding the metal, and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials have effectively tempered expectations for aggressive rate hikes. Despite robust inflation data, the market is placing greater emphasis on safe-haven demand driven by concerns over fiscal constraints, the risk of an economic slowdown, and debt-related issues in the artificial intelligence sector. Ongoing geopolitical instability has provided further sentiment-based support for gold. Looking ahead, investors should closely monitor inflation and employment data, as well as the evolution of the geopolitical situation. If the U.S. dollar remains under pressure and bond yields stay low, gold is likely to consolidate its gains above $4,100 per ounce and potentially test even higher levels. Conversely, should inflation data consistently exceed expectations or Federal Reserve officials signal a more hawkish stance, the risk of a short-term pullback could re-emerge. Gold’s primary movement last week—an initial decline followed by a recovery from the lows—should be viewed as an oversold rebound within a broader downtrend, rather than a trend reversal. Early in the week, the downward momentum persisted, with prices hitting a weekly low of $4,073.50 on Wednesday, establishing a critical support level. Thursday saw a sharp V-shaped rebound, with a single-day gain of approximately $65, pushing the price back above the $4,100 mark. On Friday, the market consolidated around the $4,170 level, entering a phase of range-bound adjustment and technical indicator repair. While a short-term bottom—potentially the early stages of a "double bottom"—has formed at $4,073, it remains merely a rebound until the price can decisively clear the neckline at $4,200–$4,217. The weekly candlestick, characterized by a long lower shadow, reflects strong buying interest at lower levels and a short-term exhaustion of bearish momentum; however, with the 5-week and 10-week moving averages continuing to exert downward pressure, the primary weekly trend remains corrective. In short, last week’s action was a technical rebound following the exhaustion of bearish pressure. Given the unstable foundation and the dense cluster of overhead moving averages, the price remains vulnerable to a pullback that could retest the recent lows.
Looking ahead to next week, gold faces difficulty in sustaining a position above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of $4,242.30, and it remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally seen between July and August. Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is positive and rising, suggesting that upward momentum is building. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—currently at approximately 46.56—indicates a slight bullish bias, though the market has yet to enter overbought territory. However, it is advisable to wait for a sustained breakout above the $4,200 level—as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,238—before considering further long positions. Potential upside targets lie at the 50.0% retracement level ($4,325) and the 38.2% retracement level ($4,412). On the downside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,115 provides immediate support, followed by horizontal support at $4,066 (the low from October 7). A decisive break below this latter level would risk a decline toward the psychological $4,000 mark.

For today, one might consider going long on gold at $4,160, with a stop-loss at $4,155 and targets at $4,200 and $4,210.